美股分析 嘉年華CCL值得投資嗎?會不會倒閉?你敢買嗎?

美股分析>嘉年華郵輪公司CCL可以買嗎?會不會倒閉呢?你敢買嗎?

嘉年華CCL小介紹:

嘉年華公司成立於1972年,
目前是一家全球前幾大的郵輪公司,
旗下郵輪品牌有:嘉年華郵輪.公主郵輪.荷美郵輪等等
(資料來源:維基百科)

想購買嘉年華CCL的2個原因

1.未來休閒趨勢之一

隨著醫療越來越好,人的壽命可以活得越來越久,
休閒活動也成了人生中重要的議題 ,
而郵輪休閒活動也漸漸受到大家的注目以及愛戴,
郵輪上 , 有舒適的房間可以休息.
有美味的餐點可以享用.
精彩的表演活動可以觀看.
還有游泳池.電影院.KTV.瑜珈運動等等,
還可以每天都在郵輪上欣賞夕陽.海洋,  
這麼多好吃好玩,
搭乘郵輪儼然成為一個新的休閒活動!!!

2.每年固定配息且股息持續成長

每年配發股息,
於每年2.5.8.11月配息,
並於每年3.6.9.12月發放

讓我們來看一下2011年到2019年的配息情形:

年度201120122013201420152016201720182019
配息
(美元)
11111.11.351.61.952
美股分析 嘉年華CCL值得投資嗎?CCL配息歷史情況
資料來源: jitta 製圖製表:作者

近期健康事件對於嘉年華CCL的影響

近期健康事件,
對嘉年華造成巨大衝擊, 
暫停全球的營業,
嘉年華公司因沒有在美國註冊,
所以也無法得到美國政府的紓困幫助….

投資美股新手必知

嘉年華公司因應措施:

  1. 發行股票,公開發售6250萬股普通股,每股8美元,獲取5億美元
  2. 發行債券,嘉年華郵輪稱已向合資格買家發售總值40億美元的2023年到期的第一優先抵押債券和總值17.5億美元的2023年到期的5.75%可轉換優先債券

嘉年華公司從發行股票及債券獲得62.5億美元

2020.3財報分析

綜合損益表出現負收入!!!!

美股分析 嘉年華CCL值得投資嗎?CCL 2020最新財報-綜合損益表
資料來源:SEC美國券商

怎麼會有負收入呢?
暫停營業 收入最慘不是零嗎?
讓我們仔細看一下,
會造成負收入主要原因為:
商譽的減值 減少了731百萬美元
那商譽是甚麼呢?
商譽是在未來期間能為企業經營帶來超額利潤的潛在經濟價值,
或是預期的獲利能力超過可辨認資產的價值,
並未實際造成公司金錢上的損失

例:A公司可辨認資產為25萬元,B公司願意用30萬元收購A公司,
則A公司商譽為30萬元-25萬元=5萬元

因此嘉年華公司並未受到金錢上的損失,
來看看與去年同期的總收入,
還增加了約116百萬美元(大約成長2.48%)!!!

流動資產夠嗎?會不會還不出負債而倒閉呢?

流動資產VS流動負債?

美股分析 嘉年華CCL值得投資嗎?CCL 2020最新財報-資產負債表
資料來源:SEC美國券商

從圖表中可以看到,
嘉年華流動資產為2,885百萬美元,
流動負債為10,716百萬美元,
流動負債中有一部分為遞延收入,
就是客戶購買未來一年郵輪門票先支付的錢,共為4,690百萬美元,
因此並不會有負債到期還款的問題,
流動負債扣除遞延收入後為6,026百萬美元,
倘若須立即清償流動負債仍不夠3,141百萬美元(6,026-2,885),
但嘉年華公司發行了股票以及債券所得約62.5億美元,
因此即使立即清償流動負債也是夠錢的喔

嘉年華CCL收入.淨收入.ROE.每股盈餘有持續成長嗎?

嘉年華CCL總收入(2015-2019年為例)

年度總收入(單位:百萬美元)
201515,714
201616,389
201717,510
2018 18,881
2019 20,825

從上述可知,
總收入從2015-2019是持續成長的,
未來郵輪休閒產業會受到更多人的喜愛,
因此我認為未來仍會持續成長

嘉年華CCL淨收入(2015-2019年為例)

年度 淨收入(單位:百萬美元)
20151,757
20162,779
20172,606
2018 3,152
2019 2,990

以淨收入來看,
2015年到2019年成長約70%

嘉年華CCL ROE(2015-2019年為例)

年度 ROE (單位:%)
20157.39
201612.3
201710.76
2018 12.9
2019 11.79

ROE股東權益報酬率(淨收入/股東權益),
大於10就是不錯可以投資的公司,
以上述資料來看,
近五年ROE都大於10,
算是穩定值得投資的公司

嘉年華CCL值得投資嗎?

我覺得嘉年華公司是一家非常值得投資的公司,
公司未來的發展性很好,未來具有價值

嘉年華CCL目前可以買嗎?你敢買嗎?我會買嗎?

從嘉年華CCL最新財報. 相關因應措施 ,
以及目前健康事件日漸趨緩的狀況下,
我覺得可以看在嘉年華公司未來的發展性分批購入,
但仍要謹慎的做資產配置

買入合理價

估算買入合理價為27美元

個人目標價

因最近健康事件影響,
CCL的股價已低於27美元,
我個人最新目標價約為10-11.8美元!

最新更新嘉年華CCL近況

美股分析 嘉年華CCL值得投資嗎?CCL 最新新聞報導
資料來源: MoneyDJ理財網 https://www.moneydj.com/KMDJ/News/NewsViewer.aspx?a=16c14758-7e42-4b7b-bf05-c8982cbc9071

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